DIPLOMAT, 윤 대통령 탄핵 지연으로 인한 경제적 비용

 

 

 

 

 

 

윤 대통령 탄핵 지연으로 인한 경제적 비용

이미 우려하는 투자자들이 한국 주식 시장에서 철수하고 있습니다.
장기적인 불안정성은 경제적 피해를 악화시킬 것입니다.

 

 

12월 3일, 윤석열 대한민국 대통령은 계엄령을 선포하여 국내외 시장에 불안을 조성했습니다. 이틀 후 최상목 부총리는 정치적 혼란의 경제적 영향이 미미하고 경기 침체에 대한 우려가 과장되었다며 투자자들을 안심시키려 했습니다.

한국 최고 경제 관료의 평가는 지나치게 낙관적이었습니다.

한국 역사상 계엄령의 시기는 한국의 경제 상황과 금융 시장을 혼란에 빠뜨렸습니다. 예를 들어 민간 독재자 이승만이 선거 사기를 통해 권력을 유지하지 못해 하와이로 추방된 후 한국 경제는 빠르게 악화되기 시작했습니다. 이승만의 퇴진은 1960년 계엄령이 선포되고 1961년 군사 독재자 박정희가 부상하는 계기가 되었습니다. 그러나 박정희는 2.3%의 성장률에 그친 경제난을 당장 되살릴 수는 없었습니다.

박정희 대통령이 엄격한 계엄령을 시행하면서 국가 경제는 큰 타격을 입어 GDP 순위가 32위에서 40위로 떨어졌습니다. 이러한 하락세에서 경제가 회복되는 데 8년이 걸렸습니다. 마찬가지로 박정희의 양아들로 추정되는 전두환이 1980년 군사 쿠데타를 통해 정권을 잡았을 때도 경제는 예상치 못하게 1.6% 위축되어 그해 전 세계 GDP 성장률보다 3.5%포인트 하락했습니다.

12월 3일 윤 장관이 계엄령을 선포한 직후 투자자들은 미국 달러와 국채를 서둘러 매수했습니다. 한국 증시를 추종하는 MSCI 한국 ETF(EWY)는 한 시간도 채 되지 않아 6.5% 하락했습니다. 야당이 계엄령 해제를 결정할 때까지 ETF는 몇 시간 동안 큰 폭의 손실을 계속 겪었습니다. 한편 한국의 비트코인 가격은 30% 이상 급락했다가 회복되기 시작했습니다. 하지만 상황은 거기서 해결되지 않았습니다.

계엄령 선포가 윤 장관이 핵심 동맹국인 미국과 상의 없이 일방적으로 내린 결정이라는 사실을 알게 되자 외국인 투자자들은 걱정이 커졌습니다. 양국 간 상호 방위 조약과 한국과 미국의 긴밀한 경제 관계를 고려할 때 윤 장관이 군사 작전을 시작하기 전에 백악관에 통보한 것이 중요했습니다.

우려하는 투자자들이 한국 증시에서 철수하고 있습니다. 한국 주식시장의 35% 이상을 보유하고 있던 외국인 투자자들은 계엄령 선포 후 사흘 동안 10억 달러 이상을 팔아치웠습니다. 이러한 추세는 정치적 불확실성이 해소될 때까지 지속될 수 있으며, 윤 전 총장 탄핵 절차의 신속한 진행이 시급하다는 점을 강조하고 있습니다.

한국 정부가 연기금과 개인 투자자를 포함한 외국인 투자자들의 신뢰를 회복하지 못하면, 인기 있는 은퇴 계좌 투자 옵션인 국제 뮤추얼 펀드와 ETF에 상당한 손실을 초래할 수 있습니다.

 

 

 

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THE DIPLOMAT 기사를 파파고에서 번역해 보았습니다.

원문은 아래에 있습니다. 감사합니다.

 

 

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The Economic Costs of Delaying the Impeachment of

South Korean President Yoon

Already, concerned investors are withdrawing from South Korea’s stock markets.

Prolonged instability will exacerbate the economic damage.

 

 

On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, creating instability in domestic and international markets. Two days later, Vice Prime Minister Choe Sang-mok sought to reassure investors, stating that the economic impact of the political turmoil was minimal and that concerns about a recession were overstated.

The evaluation by South Korea’s top economic official was overly optimistic. 

Throughout South Korea’s history, periods of martial law have disrupted the country’s economic conditions and financial markets. For example, after civilian dictator Rhee Syngman was exiled to Hawai’i due to his inability to maintain power through electoral fraud, the Korean economy quickly began to deteriorate. Rhee’s departure led to the imposition of martial law in 1960 and the rise of military dictator Park Chung-hee in 1961. However, Park could not immediately revive the struggling economy, which only experienced a growth rate of 2.3 percent.

As Park implemented stricter martial laws, the national economy suffered significantly, causing the GDP ranking to drop from 32nd to 40th. It took eight years for the economy to recover from this decline. Similarly, when Chun Doo-hwan, allegedly an adopted son of Park Chung-hee, seized power through a military coup in 1980, the economy unexpectedly contracted by 1.6 percent, falling 3.5 percentage points below the global GDP growth rate for that year.

Shortly after Yoon declared martial law on December 3, investors rushed to buy U.S. dollars and treasury bonds. The MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), which tracks the South Korean stock market, fell by 6.5 percent in less than an hour. The ETF continued to experience significant losses for several hours until opposition parties voted to lift the martial law. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices in South Korea plummeted by over 30 percent before beginning to recover. However, the situation did not resolve there.

Foreign investors became worried when they learned that the declaration of martial law was a decision made unilaterally by Yoon, without consulting his key ally, the United States. It was crucial for Yoon to notify the White House before initiating military operations, considering the mutual defense treaty between the two countries and South Korea’s close economic ties with the U.S.

Concerned investors are withdrawing from South Korea’s stock markets. Foreign investors, who previously owned over 35 percent of the Korean stock market, sold more than $1 billion in the three days following the declaration of martial law. This trend may continue until the political uncertainty is resolved, emphasizing the urgent need to expedite Yoon’s impeachment process.

If the South Korean government does not regain the confidence of foreign investors, including pension funds and retail investors, it could cause significant losses in international mutual funds and ETFs, popular retirement account investment options.

Before the completion of President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2016, the stock market experienced a decline. However, the successful impeachment later resulted in improved financial and economic conditions. The Park impeachment case could serve as an example of how investors might react to the potential impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol, which opposition parties are currently attempting to expedite.

Nevertheless, the financial and economic conditions in December 2024 are worse than in 2016, when Park Geun-hye was forced from office.

South Korea is currently grappling with significant economic challenges both domestically and globally. Yoon has enacted corporate tax cuts and has borrowed a substantial amount from the central bank and foreign reserves to cover the government deficit. Additionally, the recent relaxation of regulations on real estate lending has left the central bank with limited options to address the economic downturn. Compounding the situation, the country’s primary driver of economic growth, the semiconductor industry, is struggling.

The global economic context is also bleak. The U.S. job market is beginning to cool down, with government deficits and debt reaching unprecedented levels. China faces deflation and an economic slowdown, while the European economy is sluggish. Furthermore, two major wars are ongoing in Europe and the Middle East.

Yoon’s imposition of martial law coincided with a challenging period for U.S. investors. Typically, in December, U.S. investors participate in tax-loss harvesting by selling stocks or other assets that have decreased in value to offset capital gains taxes. Consequently, even without the surrounding political turmoil, tax-sensitive investors would have likely sold Korean stocks due to their poor performance relative to other major stock markets in 2024.

Currently, Korean and U.S. investors are facing ongoing volatility and risks. Institutional fund managers are expected to take a cautious approach and reduce their exposure to Korean financial assets until conditions improve. This cautiousness is likely to hinder the growth of the Korean economy. As a result, companies will encounter higher cost of capital, forcing them to cut back on the capital expenditures necessary for future growth. This reduced growth potential will lead to lower valuations in the Korean stock markets and exacerbate the “Korea Discount.”

If the political uncertainty surrounding the impeachment process is not addressed promptly, South Korea will likely face serious economic setbacks and financial difficulties. Several factors contribute to this outlook: Yoon and his ruling party have lost credibility with key allies; Yoon’s unpredictable behavior presents challenges for the Trump 2.0 administration; the current domestic and international economic conditions differ significantly from those during the previous impeachment; and the timing of the royal coup was poorly chosen.

If there is any good news, it’s that South Korea’s economy has always been resilient and tends to rebound once political uncertainty dissipates.